When will Strait of Hormuz be ‘safe’ for commercial shipping again?

Since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran nine weeks ago, the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is shipped during peacetime, has become the chokepoint of the global economy. The tremors from the effective closure of the strait – a narrow artery linking oil and gas producers in the Gulf to the open seas – are being felt across the world, stoking fears of a global recession. About 2,000 ships remain stranded in the Gulf, waiting to be allowed through. But even if the strait is reopened to all traffic, there will still be obstacles to shipping. The United States has said it will take six months to clear mines it believes have been laid by Iran. Indeed, this was one of the main reasons that maritime insurers cancelled “war risk” insurance for tankers travelling through the strait in March. Even if the strait reopens, a high level of risk will remain for ships crossing through, which could push premiums up by about 0.25 percent of hull value before the war to as much as 5 percent now, shipping insurers told Al Jazeera this week. …