Will the Fed cut rates? Here's what to expect at Wednesday's meeting.

The Federal Reserve will announce its third rate decision of 2026 on Wednesday, as officials confront rising inflation , a lackluster job market and what is likely to be Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair. The overwhelming consensus among economists is that the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, will hold rates steady. On Tuesday, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed a 100% probability that the Fed will keep its target rate within its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. That would mark a third consecutive pause for the Fed this year, with the central bank holding rates unchanged at both its January and March meetings as it assessed the economic impact of President Trump's tariffs and the fallout of the Iran war . The conflict has caused energy prices to skyrocket and pushed inflation to its highest level in almost two years. "The FOMC is likely to reiterate its wait-and-see message at its April meeting this week because the war with Iran continues to cloud the economic outlook and to present risks to both inflation and activity," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in an April 26 research note. Powell, meanwhile, is set to step down as Fed chair when his term concludes on May 15, capping an eight-year tenure as the leader of the central bank. He's expected to be replaced by Kevin Warsh, whose confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee was held last week. Warsh's path to succeed Powell has been smoothed by U.S. …