Citi UK CEO: 'Phenomenal' market resilience is keeping recession risk at bay — for now

Tiina Lee, the CEO of Citi U.K., expects global growth to remain resilient this year, telling CNBC that a "recessionary environment" is "not our base case." Markets have continued to perform in an orderly way, despite the economic and geopolitical upheaval caused by the Iran conflict, which entered its 60 th day on Tuesday, Lee said. She highlighted a ripening opportunity set across AI, data infrastructure, and energy, coupled with record mergers and acquisitions volumes in the first quarter. But, speaking with CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Tuesday, Lee acknowledged that a deeper and longer conflict remains a live risk for markets and economies. The war has driven Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel, compared to around $70 in February. If hostilities continue for the remainder of this year and into 2027, the risk is that oil surges towards $120 or $150. "That's a different scenario," Lee said. The global oil benchmark crept up to $111 a barrel in early trading Tuesday. However, she underscored the resilience in the global economy, particularly within the U.S., and said she expects growth to remain "fairly resilient" for the remainder of 2026, at around 2.7%. "A recessionary environment is not our base case," she said. The U.S. …