What's the mortgage interest rate forecast for May 2026?

The direction of mortgage interest rates this May will depend on a variety of timely factors. sakchai vongsasiripat/ We're now in the second quarter of 2026 and the year has already been unpredictable when it comes to mortgage interest rates . After nearly four months, some rate predictions may need to be recast. If you were house-hunting in February, mortgage rates felt like they were back on track. The average 30-year rate was 5.87% , and qualified borrowers were landing rates close to 5% . For many buyers who'd been sidelined for years, the sub-6% rates seemed like the first real relief. Then it closed. The war with Iran spurred inflation fears and drove up mortgage rates . The 30-year average climbed to 6.37% by March 23, more than half a percentage point above the February mark. As of April 27, rates have pulled back. Zillow's average 30-year is now 6%, still above the mid-February level, but well below March's peak. The recent decline comes as ceasefire talks in the Iran war have calmed the bond market and pulled the 10-year Treasury yield , the main driver of mortgage rates, back down. "The lesson from this spring is that affordability gains are fragile," says Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality. "Rates can give back weeks of improvement in a matter of days if risk sentiment shifts." So where do rates head from here? We asked some experts for their thoughts on where mortgage rates could head this May, which we'll break down below. …