Bitcoin's summer swoon creates unique trade in Strategy

Bitcoin 's nearly 9-month slide has even HODLers quaking in their boots. Despite the severity of the sell-off so far, several of the most reliable technical indicators — specifically exponential moving averages (EMA), weighted moving averages (WMA), MACD, and the Directional Movement Index (DMI) — continue to lean decidedly short. History provides a stark reminder of how deep crypto winters can cut. Prior to the current cycle, bitcoin's five worst historical drawdowns were significantly more brutal; four of them exceeded 80%. If a similar capitulation plays out today, a retracement of that magnitude would drag the digital asset back into the $22,000 neighborhood. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Bitcoin, YTD This weakness isn't occurring in a vacuum. Broad-based inflation hedges and commodity complexes are experiencing a parallel breakdown. Precious metals like gold and silver have recently cracked below their long-term moving averages. In base metals, while copper has managed to hold its ground so far, aluminum just crossed below its 200-day moving average. Outright shorting bitcoin or high-beta crypto equities after a steep decline carries immense tail risk. Maybe this crypto winter won't be as severe as the prior ones, and even if it is, vicious bear market rallies can ultimately wipe out short positions overnight. …