Andy Burnham is about to have a crash course in hardcore geopolitics | Rafael Behr

If Andy Burnham is lucky, he will get some time to adjust to the pace of life as prime minister before dealing with his first international crisis. It won’t be long. Donald Trump is an engine of constant turmoil. Aftershocks from his recent military adventure in the Middle East will be felt for years. None of the declared war aims were achieved. The Iranian regime was not toppled. The terms agreed for a ceasefire promise Tehran more generous sanctions relief with fewer conditions than were imposed under the nuclear containment deal that Barack Obama signed in 2015. It is a worse arrangement than the one Trump discarded in his first term as “one of the worst deals ever”. Stocks of US munitions and credibility have been drained. It is a strategic blunder and a humiliation for Trump. Since he is incapable of owning a mistake, the injury to his pride will be nursed with vengeful spite. A wounded authoritarian leader compensates for the exposure of weakness with ever more aggressive performances of strength. A similar process is operating in the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin refuses to accept that his attempted conquest of Ukraine has failed. In his mind, the war is an existential battle to preserve Russian national honour against western hostility. Lack of progress on the frontline will lead to increased belligerence elsewhere. Kyiv’s allies can expect more Russian provocations – sabotage, drone incursions, cyber-attacks – and less US support to deal with them. …