The Lebanon-Israel agreement is paving the way for the next war

After months of war, pressure and diplomatic choreography , Lebanon has effectively entered into a declaration of intent with Israel. The reactions were swift: condemnation from wide swaths of Lebanon’s political actors, including Hezbollah and its allies, as well as protests in the streets and criticism in the media. The problems with the signed document are many – it is unrealistic, politically explosive and constitutionally suspect. But perhaps the worst aspect of it is that it paves the way for a new war and for Lebanon to be blamed for it. An impossible agreement Israel has long understood the value of loosely worded interim arrangements, declarations and deferred questions. The Oslo agreement is titled Declarations of Principles and sets out “general guidelines for the negotiations to come”. Borders, settlements, Jerusalem, refugees, security and sovereignty were left for later; and “later” never came. The interim architecture hardened into a reality in which Israel preserved freedom of action, expanded apartheid, occupation, endless land grabs, and blamed the Palestinians for failing to meet conditions they could never fully control. Lebanon is not Palestine, and neither the documents nor the contexts are identical. But the diplomatic logic is similar enough to be alarming: Lebanon and Israel declaring “their ambition to end conflict” while avoiding final answers may appear flexible, but in practice, it is most likely a trap. …