DR Congo manager’s tactics may provide tougher challenge for England than Opta stats suggest

England head into their match against the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) expecting to win. Opta rates their chances of victory in normal time at 73.9%. Yet the tactics deployed by the DRC manager, Sébastien Desabre, will make it harder than this probability suggests. Desabre has a clear strategy for facing the stronger teams in this tournament that differs from how he approached qualifying matches. The DRC used a four-man defence in 12 of their 13 games in qualification, retaining a back four in their pre-tournament friendly against Chile. They switched to a back five for a warm-up match with Denmark, using the same 5-3-2 formation for their group stage games with Portugal and Colombia . A DRC team ranked 65th in the world held sides rated 19th, sixth and 17th respectively to just two goals across these three games. They did not rely on fortune either. Denmark generated shots collectively worth 0.74 expected goals according to Opta, with Portugal (0.65 xG) and Colombia (0.98 xG) also struggling to create high-value opportunities. Desabre’s side are adept at frustrating opponents, causing them to take low-probability shots from long-range when their attacking moves threaten to break down. By keeping opposing teams a long way from their goal, the DRC are able to keep the quality of the chance they face low. Where the average non-penalty shot in the group stage was worth 0.10 expected goals, teams facing the DRC averaged just 0.06. …