World Cup glory could all come down to penalties. What’s the best strategy?

T he 2022 World Cup final was a nail-biting affair, decided by a penalty shootout after Argentina and France were evenly matched with three goals apiece . Argentina subsequently won 4-2 on penalties, taking the title. Even outside penalty shootouts, a single spot kick can easily decide the outcome of a game at a World Cup , making any advantage in taking a penalty crucial. So what can we learn about the best strategy for penalty kicks from statistics and research? Go first, or at least win the toss One of the best things a team can do is to win the shootout coin toss. Research based on shootouts at major competitions including the World Cup, European Championship and English domestic cups between 1970 and 2003, shows the team taking the first penalty wins 60.5% of the time . In later research which covered matches after the 2003 rule change that allowed the coin-toss winner to choose between going first or second, it was more beneficial to win the coin-toss , rather than kick first per se. About 60% of teams that won the toss were able to win the shootout, compared with a win rate of 51% for teams that shot first. While France won the choice of going first or second in the 2022 World Cup final, Argentina won the choice of ends. …