Morgan Stanley doubles China humanoid robot shipment forecast as commercialization accelerates

An exhibitor demonstrates a Unitree Robotics G1 humanoid robot at the Humanoids Summit in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, May 29, 2026. Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Images Morgan Stanley has sharply raised its outlook for China's humanoid robotics market, saying the industry's shift from demonstration to commercial deployment has proved faster than expected. The Wall Street bank upgraded its forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments for a second time this year on Tuesday, expecting 50,000 units to ship this year, nearly double its previous projection of 28,000. The bank had already doubled its initial January forecast of 14,000 units . Morgan Stanley estimated China's humanoid robot market will reach $2 billion this year and grow to $15 billion by 2030. Annual shipments are forecast to reach 446,000 units by then. The forecast includes only external sales, excluding those produced for prototypes, pre-order trials, or internal use. "Commercial verification, policy support, and supply-chain feedback point to faster humanoid adoption in China," Sheng Zhong, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note Tuesday. China has accelerated its push to dominate the industry, with a growing roster of domestic manufacturers racing to scale production and deploy robots in real-world settings such as factories, convenience stores and restaurants. …