Ukraine is raising the cost of war for Russia — and testing Putin's resolve

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a wreath-laying ceremony marking the 85th anniversary of the Nazi Germany invasion into the Soviet Union in World War II on the Remembrance and Sorrow Day at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall in Moscow on June 22, 2026. Pavel Bednyakov | Afp | Getty Images A string of political victories and deep-strike successes by Ukraine has revived hopes that the war could be shifting in Kyiv's favor, though analysts warn that efforts to raise the conflict's cost for Russia risk triggering further escalation. After more than four years since Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine launched an unprecedented drone strike on Gazprom's Moscow Refinery, triggering a huge explosion and sending black plumes of smoke billowing into the sky over the Russian capital. The attack, which blew the lid off a storage tank, showcased Kyiv's enhanced mid- to long-range drone capabilities and extended a series of strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure. Ukraine has also stepped up its strikes on Crimea, which Russia seized by force in 2014, as part of a strategy to isolate the peninsula, and has benefitted from political tailwinds in recent weeks. U.S. …