In Nigel Farage’s shoes, a less experienced politician might panic

As those around Nigel Farage are fond of pointing out, Reform UK has now led in more than 300 consecutive national polls. When it comes to byelections, though, it is fair to say the party’s results are more mixed. Yes, Robert Kenyon came second in Makerfield to a popular regional mayor backed by a Labour campaign so relentless that the main risk was annoying voters by knocking too often on their doors. Kenyon also increased his and Reform’s share of the vote from the 2024 general election. This, though, was a seat so demographically Reform-friendly that some pundits warned Andy Burnham was taking a big risk using it as his vehicle for a return to Westminster. In that context, as Farage himself said on Friday morning, Makerfield was a disappointment. The larger danger is that it could become a trend. Of the five byelections held since the general election in 2024, Reform has only won a single seat, last year in Runcorn and Helsby – and that by precisely six votes. The two byelections held in Scotland on Thursday were never on Farage’s agenda. But Makerfield comes four months after Reform also came a distant second in Gorton and Denton , that time to the Greens. Both seats are in Greater Manchester, if politically and demographically very different. But they arguably contain some of the same lessons for Reform, including the importance of selecting the right candidate. …