California’s counting on an IPO tax windfall. Several factors are complicating the equation

The iconic Golden Gate Bridge and the stunning San Francisco skyline as seen from the Marin Headlands during the vibrant spring season. Dan Kurtzman | Moment | Getty Images A version of this article first appeared in CNBC's Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox. The blockbuster SpaceX IPO and potential upcoming public offerings for OpenAI and Anthropic could create a tax windfall for the state of California. Yet the revenue boost may fall short of previous tech IPOs – at least relative to the firms' valuations – given the specific nature and tax treatment of today's tech compensation. Following its IPO last week, SpaceX is now valued at $2.5 trillion, minting many of its employees who live and work near its Hawthorne, California, office as millionaires, at least on paper. California-based Anthropic and OpenAI are also expected to go public later this year at valuations that could approach $1 trillion. The burst of tech wealth has drawn comparison to the 2012 IPO of Menlo Park-based Facebook, which generated $1.3 billion in taxes for the Golden State, per the California Department of Finance's estimate. Facebook's valuation at the time was just $104 billion, suggesting the new crop of super-IPOs could theoretically generate billions more. …