Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise

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Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise

Noble, T. L. et al. The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: past, present, and future. Rev. Geophys. 58 , e2019RG000663 (2020). Article ADS Google Scholar Cook, A. J. …

Noble, T. L. et al. The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: past, present, and future. Rev. Geophys. 58 , e2019RG000663 (2020). Article ADS Google Scholar Cook, A. J. & Vaughan, D. G. Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years. Cryosphere 4 , 77–98 (2010). Article ADS Google Scholar Walker, C. C. et al. Multi-decadal collapse of East Antarctica’s Conger–Glenzer Ice Shelf. Nat. Geosci. 17 , 1240–1248 (2024). Article ADS Google Scholar Fox-Kemper, B. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 9 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021). Oppenheimer, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 126 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2019). DeConto, R. M. et al. The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica. Nature 593 , 83–89 (2021). This study applies the MICI mechanism to project Antarctic Ice Sheet contributions to sea-level rise under Paris Agreement emissions scenarios, providing high-end estimates that have become central to planning for worst-case outcomes . Article ADS PubMed Google Scholar Otosaka, I. N. et al. Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 15 , 1597–1616 (2023). Article ADS Google Scholar Weertman, J. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. J. Glaciol. 13 , 3–11 (1974). …

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