Iran deal won't solve oil supply issues overnight. Barclays keeps $100 forecast

The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen Friday after a peace deal is signed by the U.S. and Iran in Geneva, but the war's impact on oil supplies could last longer than prices suggest, according to Barclays. The firm is maintaining its 2026 oil price forecast at $100 per barrel for Brent, even as the global benchmark tumbles below $80 per barrel for the first time since March. The U.S. and Iran announced Sunday that they had reached a memorandum of understanding to end the war. But even if it is finalized this week, analyst Amarpreet Singh said restoring normal trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks. "The Strait of Hormuz blockades might soon be in the rearview mirror, but the effect on oil market fundamentals will not be clear for at least a few more weeks and could prove stickier than market participants currently expect," Singh wrote in a note. Rerouting shipping, clearing logistical bottlenecks and restarting production will take time and the risk of renewed flare-ups and further supply disruptions remains non-trivial, according to the bank. "Around 60% of oil demand is tied to the production and movement of goods. While a gradual easing toward $80/b Brent by end-2027 appears plausible, we see near-term risks to prices as skewed to the upside," the bank said in its note. However, analysts at Citi believe trade flows through the critical waterway will resume quicker than previously anticipated. …