NASA Uses Machine Learning to Enhance Flash Flood Warnings

Created with support from NASA’s Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO), TACLS leverages machine learning to automatically locate evidence (unusual increases in atmospheric moisture) of impending flash flooding that meteorologists may otherwise miss as they analyze large amounts of data. TACLS flags that evidence, indicates where flash flooding could likely occur, and displays that information via a user-friendly visualization for human analysts to interpret. Those analysts can then decide whether to issue a flash flood warning or weather advisory. This novel framework for tracking extreme weather events and predicting imminent flash floods operates in near real-time, producing forecasts in as little as fifteen minutes. “That’s really what we wanted to do, to give meteorologists a tool to help decision making for flash flood warnings,” said Yehuda Bock, Distinguished Researcher at the UCSD Scripps Institution of Oceanography and principal investigator for TACLS. In simulations testing, TACLS used data from diverse severe weather events—including atmospheric rivers, monsoonal convection, and tropical cyclone remnants—between 2017 and 2023 and successfully captured 93% of the issued flash-flood warnings. Meteorologists from the National Weather Service are currently working to incorporate TACLS into their existing systems for forecasting flash floods in Southern California. This learning system has two main components. …