Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecast as Hormuz deal brings forward Gulf supply recovery

Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecasts after President Donald Trump reached an interim deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, bringing forward the bank's estimated timeline for a recovery in Persian Gulf crude trade by a month. The Wall Street bank now sees Brent crude averaging $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from the previous forecast of $90, a team of strategists led by Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, said in a note Monday. The 2027 Brent forecast was trimmed to $75 from $80. Goldman also lowered its U.S. WTI estimates to $75 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $70 for 2027. Trump and Iran's lead negotiator signed an agreement on Monday to extend a tenuous ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes for an end to the historic energy shock that has roiled global markets and clouded the growth outlook. Brent crude prices dropped by nearly 5% on Monday to their lowest close since March 4. The deal prompted Goldman to bring forward its projected timeline for normalization of Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels — by one month to end-July — with oil production now expected to recover fully by October. Goldman estimates that normalization could be achieved with a 12 million barrels-per-day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels, bringing volumes back to just 70% of pre-war levels. …