How the Strait of Hormuz reopening could unfold if the U.S.-Iran deal is implemented

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could rise to nearly 50% of prewar levels within a month if the U.S.-Iran deal is implemented without any major setbacks, analysts at the trade data firm Kpler said Monday. Washington and Tehran are expected to sign a deal Friday in Switzerland that will open Hormuz and lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iran. Ships sailing through Hormuz could increase to 40 per day compared to 100 daily transits before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the Kpler analysts said in a research note. About 20% of global oil supplies passed through the strait before Iran started attacking tankers in early March. Ships stuck in the Persian Gulf that are fully loaded with cargo will cross Hormuz first, the analysts said. There are an estimated 118 tankers in the Gulf that could exit the region within 15 days, they said The surge of stranded ships exiting the region is a one-time event that should not be interpreted as a durable increase of traffic, the analysts said. The key question is how many vessels will enter the Gulf after the backlog is cleared. A large number of ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea for Hormuz to open, said Matt Wright, the lead freight analyst at Kpler. Tankers entering the Persian Gulf could increase to 12 per day, about 50% of prewar levels, in the first 30 days of the U.S.-Iran deal, Wright said. Shippers that are more cautious will wait and watch to see how the initial transits go, Wright said. …