Good news—we have extra time before the Sun ends life on Earth

Model timelines for the weak and strong weathering scenarios. Temperature in the top plot is in kelvins—a change of 1 kelvin is equivalent to 1 °C. Carbon dioxide in the bottom plot is on a logarithmic scale. (10 1 is 10 parts per million, 10 2 is 100 parts per million, etc.) Model timelines for the weak and strong weathering scenarios. Temperature in the top plot is in kelvins—a change of 1 kelvin is equivalent to 1 °C. Carbon dioxide in the bottom plot is on a logarithmic scale. (10 1 is 10 parts per million, 10 2 is 100 parts per million, etc.) Credit: Haqq-Misra and Wolf/JGR Atmospheres That’s optimistic? The, uh, good news about these estimates for the demise of complex life on Earth is that they’re actually a bit more optimistic than most previous studies. That’s down to the 3D model producing a little less warming for a brighter Sun, the expectation that CO 2 declines more slowly over time, and a slight expansion of the CO 2 range believed to be survivable by plants. Many previous estimates had put life’s expiration date at less than 1 billion years from now. Obviously, there are a bunch of additional considerations that could significantly alter this story, and the researchers mention a few. If civilization persists long enough to see some of these changes, geoengineering would certainly be an option—like spreading aerosols in the stratosphere to reflect sunlight, for example. …