SpaceX top? Major IPOs don't typically flag a bull market peak, history shows

Historical data suggest that major IPOs don't usually flag a bull market peak in the year that follows. SpaceX is poised to launch the biggest IPO ever when it begins trading this Friday. But a recent analysis from Canaccord Genuity shows that broad stock market averages typically tend to outperform big IPOs after a year. "Recent history suggests large IPOs are not a headwind for index performance," the Canaccord analysts wrote. The investment bank reviewed the historical impact of the largest global listings since 2008, including seven IPOs that raised the largest dollar amounts of capital globally: Visa , Facebook , Alibaba , Aramco, Rivian , LG Energy Solution and ARM Holdings . Historical impact Historical data analyzed by Canaccord Genuity showed that, on average, the Nasdaq Composite gained 10.9% one year after the mega-sized IPOs, while S & P 500 rose a more modest 1.1%. Notably, index returns outpaced the IPOs themselves, which were down 4.2% on average over the same period. Most of the seven IPOs declined in their first year of trading, for example. Facebook, Alibaba, Aramco and Rivian also suffered sharp losses. Arm was the major exception, more than doubling, with a 132% gain. The Nasdaq rose over the following year after five of the seven jumbo IPOs, including gains of 42.2% after Facebook's 2012 IPO; 41.8% after ARM Holdings went public in 2023; and 20.3% one after Saudi Aramco's 2019 debut. …