Blackouts, hyperinflation, dissent: Iran considers perilous prospect of peace

Iran is already preparing for the perilous transition from wartime unity to a fractious peace marked by hyperinflation, a 10% contraction in the economy, power cuts and calls for a triumphalist government to end its unprecedented hunting down of dissent. With peace not yet secured, the debates within the regime about Iran’s future are only just starting to emerge but its rulers are clearly thinking about how after surviving the war, they can survive the peace. Open discussions on channels such as Azad are heard on alternative future postwar directions for the country. There are advocates of greater openness, and others such as Saeed Ajorlou, close to the Iranian negotiating team, who say, now the myth of a weak Iran has been shattered in western minds, the country must seek development through autonomy. Much will depend on whether Donald Trump is really willing to lift the economic blockade on Iran by reducing sanctions and ending asset freezes, but few Iranian economists think the relief will be more than a small fraction of the estimated $270bn (£200bn) losses inflicted on the economy including its infrastructure, schools, energy, steelworks and housing. Iranian commentators such as Fuad Habibi, a sociology professor at the University of Kurdistan, are wary of terms such as social collapse but are very open that the conditions that led to the bloody protests in January have not been solved, and indeed made worse by war. …