Who would England be likely to play if they reach the World Cup final?

W ho will England have to beat to win the World Cup for the first time since 1966? We can’t predict the future but, with the help of the Opta supercomputer, we can give a probabilistic estimate of what could happen. Let’s establish the “what if” scenarios and map out England’s potential route to the final. Group stage England are the top seeds in Group L alongside Croatia, Ghana and Panama. On the face of it, it is a kind draw, and the Opta supercomputer’s numbers reflect that. Across its 10,000 tournament simulations, England made it through to the knockout stage 96% of the time and won the group in 67.9% of simulations. They are the third-likeliest side to win their group behind only Spain (75.3%) and Argentina (73.0%). The supercomputer is less certain about who will qualify alongside England , but Croatia are deemed the next-most likely (77.8%) above Ghana (49.7%) and Panama (39.4%). With eight teams able to qualify for the last 32 having finished third in their group, there is a strong chance only one team from Group L will be sent packing. In fact, just 12 of the 48 teams at the World Cup will be knocked out in the group stage. If England top their group, they will face one of the eight third-placed teams in the next round. The winners of Group L will face a third-place finisher from Group E, H, I, J or K. …