Reform UK support could plateau as it relies on socially conservative views, study finds

Reform UK is becoming increasingly reliant on socially conservative views for political support, and therefore could struggle to push its poll ratings much higher, a large-scale research project led by the leading psephologist John Curtice has found. A study of Nigel Farage’s party carried out as part of the British Social Attitudes report found that while Reform supporters were disproportionately more likely to be unhappy with politicians and public services, recent recruits had seemingly more robust attitudes in areas such as diversity and welfare. Given such views were only held by a minority of voters, Curtice said, it was possible support for Reform might plateau close to its current percentage range in the mid- to high-20s. “Something like 30% looks like not an absolute ceiling, but they are unlikely to rise much above that given the character of the campaign issues that they are emphasising,” said Curtice, who is a fellow of the National Centre for Social Research, which has organised the annual British Social Attitudes project since 1983. “I suspect that given its current political strategy, that is probably a ceiling,” he added, while saying that given the current fragmentation of party political support, this might still be enough to win a general election under the current first-past-the-post system. …