Can Polymarket predict the progress of science, or are subject-experts better?

Prediction markets such as Kalshi allow users to speculate on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. Credit: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have soared in popularity over the past few months. From bets on disease outbreaks to wagers about artificial intelligence, many of their markets relate to science and research. …