Oil markets are betting on a swift end to the Iran war. Investors may regret it

Oil futures are still pricing a quick resolution to the Iran war — but analysts warn that investors and consumers are likely to be left disappointed. Prices jumped more than 3% at one point early Thursday after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh missile strikes as hostilities in the Middle East appeared to re-escalate. Brent crude , the international price benchmark, was last seen 2.1% higher at $96.29, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were back above $90 a barrel after a 2.4% rise. Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, said investors are finding it "incredibly hard" to get a handle on the ongoing price swings, noting how markets are being whipsawed by constantly shifting signals from both Washington and Tehran, with apparent diplomatic progress frequently contradicted within hours. Macpherson highlighted reports on Wednesday that Iranian officials had discussed a memorandum of understanding containing areas of agreement between both sides, only for the White House to later dismiss the claims as untrue. The conflicting rhetoric is unfolding alongside renewed strikes and retaliatory attacks in the region that are putting a fragile ceasefire at risk of breaking down. While markets are "finding ways of muddling through for now," Macpherson said, the current situation is ultimately unsustainable. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Brent crude. …