Why reluctant 'guru' says Dutch will win World Cup

For Klement, a self-professed "pessimist" who has lived in the UK for 10 years, the research was never about protecting anyone from heartbreak, or winning big on a bet. Rather, he hoped to reveal the absurdity of trying to predict outcomes. "This started as an exercise in showing the world a hubris of economists who think they can forecast stuff that they actually have no clue about," Klement said. "And now it's become an exercise in how, if you're lucky often enough, people will think you're a guru." After his first prediction came true when his native Germany won the 2014 World Cup, Klement imagined running the numbers again in 2018 would expose it as a fluke. But he predicted correctly with France in 2018 - then again with Argentina in 2022. "Because I was right three times in a row, people now think that this model is unbeatable and that I obviously will have to be right as well next time," he said. It is true that World Cup success is partly determined by known "systemic" factors, such as national population, wealth, climate and Fifa world rankings. But Klement urges readers of his quadrennial forecast - growing in popularity with each successful prediction - to take its contents with a pinch of salt, since such factors only tell part of the story. "The other 50% is luck," he adds. …