U.S. intel community analyzing how Cuba might respond to military action

Washington — The U.S. intelligence community has been exploring how Cuba might respond to an American military action, CBS News has learned. Earlier this month, as the U.S. intelligence community tracked the Universal, a sanctioned Russian-flagged oil tanker bound for Cuba, analysts at the Pentagon and Defense Intelligence Agency, the U.S. military's intelligence arm, started to analyze what the Cuban response would be to an American attack on the Caribbean country. Work on developing military options for President Trump has begun, according to two U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. Both requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. These types of intelligence forecasts attempt not only to show the immediate consequences of an American action, but the chain of reactions that may follow. U.S. military planners frequently incorporate such analysis into developing options for a president to consider. When asked Wednesday by reporters if there would be further escalation in Cuba following the U.S. indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro , Mr. Trump replied , "No, there won't be escalation. I don't think there needs to be." The blowback assessment from the U.S. intelligence community is not clear, but it is ongoing and comes as tensions between Havana and Washington have been rising. …