Here's how Nvidia has traded each of the last 16 quarters

It's been a while since Nvidia earnings shocked the world, or even just traders. Options pricing has overestimated the size of Nvidia's post-report swing six of the past seven quarters, and 14 of the past 20, according to Cboe LiveVol data. Implied volatility going into earnings averages 6.7%, compared to the average actual response of 4.6%. Perhaps traders are getting wise this time around: implied volatility in the world's biggest company touched the highest since March on Friday and has come down while the stock slipped this week, reducing current expectations down to a 5.9% move. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards It's arguably a higher-pressure earnings for Jensen Huang's AI behemoth following a 34% run off the stock's March lows and an additional trillion dollars of market cap . Adding to the drama is recent history, as shares slid after the past three reports, including a 5.5% dive in February. "They would have to just blow the doors completely off, like 50% guidance beat, for the stock to surge," Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy, said in a phone call. "Given the history of phenomenal metrics and a stock that pops right away and then sells off, I want to sell some premium and lean a little short." Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Nvidia, YTD Regardless of direction, just getting past Nvidia earnings alone may help clear the way for the next big market move. …