ACA enrollment may fall by 5 million people this year, analysis finds

An Obamacare sign is displayed outside an insurance agency on Nov. 12, 2025, in Miami. Joe Raedle | News | Enrollment in the Affordable Care Act marketplace may ultimately fall by about 5 million people this year relative to 2025, as Americans face sharply higher costs triggered by a lapse in federal subsidies for healthcare premiums, according to a new study. Marketplace enrollment could decline to roughly 17.5 million people in 2026 from 22.3 million people last year, a 21.5% drop, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group. Its analysis , published Tuesday, is based on federal data and premium payment estimates from Wakely Consulting Group, a healthcare consultancy and actuarial shop. The estimate comes as healthcare premiums for insurance plans bought on the Affordable Care Act marketplace — which is leveraged by the self-employed, gig workers, early retirees and others — have soared this year as Congress failed to extend so-called enhanced subsidies that reduced costs for most enrollees.