What's the mortgage rate you'll be paying later this year? Probably higher

A "for sale" sign is posted in front of a property on May 11, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. Justin Sullivan | Don't wait for mortgage rates to come down later this year before locking in your loan, according to indications coming out the prediction markets. After the 30-year fixed mortgage rate shot to the highest level since July 2025 on Tuesday, Kalshi traders became more confident rates will surpass 6.8% this year and perhaps even reach as high as 7%. The 6.75% rate, reported by Mortgage News Daily, comes after the 30-year Treasury yield jumped to the highest since 2007 and the 10-year Treasury yield also threatened to break out to a multi-year high. The 10-year note is a key benchmark for mortgages. Kalshi currently has multiple markets, which predict a numeric range for how high mortgage rates will be this year. On Tuesday, chances that rates will go above 6.8% went from 43% to 50% within a few hours. There was also a jump in odds that the mortgage rate will top 7% at some point this year. Traders gave it little chance of happening on Monday, but those odds jumped to 23% on Tuesday following the surge in market yields. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose by 33 basis points in the last 10 days and 46 basis points since April, when it was at 6.29%. Mortgage rates have been shaky since the Iran war, with rates going 6.64% in March but then tumbling down in April. A basis point equals 0.01%. …