Analytics firm connects bets made on war with signs of insider trading

Nine connected Polymarket accounts have raked in more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military actions in what digital detectives from the data analytics firm Bubblemaps have identified as a potentially egregious case of insider trading. The anonymous accounts made winning bets on the specific dates of pivotal moments in the war with Iran: the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. Across more than 80 bets, the accounts had a 98% win rate, even as many wagers were made when the odds of winning were low, according to Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman, who shared their findings first with 60 Minutes. "This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far," Vaiman said. "Luck alone cannot explain those numbers." The nine linked accounts aren't alone in betting on war. More than $1 billion has been staked online this year on military decisions and outcomes. The ability to bet on war on prediction markets has created a whole new category of insider trading. Prediction markets explode in popularity Prediction markets, which allow users to wager on the likelihood of many kinds of future events, have exploded in popularity. But after a U.S. Army soldier was indicted last month for allegedly using classified information to win bets, 60 Minutes examined how insiders may be using nonpublic information to gain an edge. …