Labor’s budget will benefit the young – but does little to woo voters drawn to One Nation

Labor’s fifth budget will do what it says on the tin: it will benefit the young and the poor at the expense of the older and the rich. This is the most obvious takeaway from distributional analysis conducted by Ben Phillips, an associate professor at the ANU’s Centre for Social Policy Research. But lift the lid on what Jim Chalmers has called his most ambitious reform package to date, and it becomes evident there is little inside for the many middle-aged, middle-income Australians who are increasingly drawn to the populist politics of parties like One Nation. Scaling back the capital gains tax discount, getting rid of negative gearing for landlords, and a minimum 30% tax rate on income from discretionary trusts – which are a favourite tax minimisation vehicle for the well-off – were all part of a suite of measures framed as striking a blow against intergenerational inequity. And as part of an effort to ease the growing tax burden on workers, taxpayers will receive a $250 offset on earned income and an instant $1000 tax deduction. These policies have staggered start dates, but to get a sense of their combined effect, Phillips modelled a world where all of the policy changes applied in the 2026-27 financial year. Average impact from budget changes on annual household income by age group Starting by age, the research shows what you would expect. Gen Z and millennials enjoy the lion’s share of the benefits with an average annual income boost of $300 to $400. …