Oil struggles for direction as IEA flags greater volatility ahead, OPEC cuts demand forecast

The Ateela 2 Oil Tanker boat navigates the sea on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Asghar Besharati | Oil was struggling for direction Thursday as traders weighed OPEC 's lower demand outlook for this year, while the International Energy Agency flagged greater volatility ahead. International benchmark Brent crude futures for July were down 0.21% at $105.42 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June fell 0.16% at $100.87 per barrel. Both had started the day marginally higher. OPEC cut its demand growth estimates for 2026 to about 1.2 million barrels per day, from 1.4 million bpd previously, in its latest monthly update. OPEC production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April and has declined more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd since the start of the Iran war in late February. OPEC's latest update is expected to be the last one to include data from the United Arab Emirates, which exited the cartel on May 1. The International Energy Agency 's on Wednesday also highlighted the impact of the Iran war on oil supply. "More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace," the IEA said. With more than 14 million bpd of supply cut, the overall loss from Gulf producers is now over a billion barrels, the IEA said, adding that greater price volatility is likely as peak summer demand approaches. …