Social Security COLA for 2027 may be higher as inflation rises, new estimates find

A man walks by the dairy section at a supermarket in Houston, Texas, on March 17, 2026. Ronaldo Schemidt | AFP | New government data showing rising inflation points to a higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, according to new forecasts. The Social Security COLA may be 4.2% amid "sharply rising" gasoline, energy and fresh produce prices, according to Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. Johnson's new forecast is based on April consumer price index data that was released on Tuesday, and is up from the 3.2% COLA estimate for 2027 that Johnson forecast last month. Meanwhile, the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, now estimates the COLA could be 3.9% in 2027 — up from the 2.8% annual increase the organization had forecast in April.