Analysis: Iran war hangs over Trump's China trip — and his presidency

Stocks are rising on faith in artificial intelligence and traders' well-earned sense that Trump will find a way to get out from under major economic risks. But the market is fragile and could fall apart if the disruption continues, analysts with JPMorgan wrote in a note sent to clients Monday. "A temporary shock, even a large one, can be absorbed. A prolonged disruption cannot," the analysts wrote. The analysts conclude that because the mounting damage is so severe, Iran or the U.S. will back off by June. That is a reasonable bet for a Wall Street firm to make, given Trump's prominent decisions to back off on threats over tariffs and Greenland , for instance. But the judgment that the pain will get so intense one side has to back off has grim implications for Americans already struggling to pay at the pump — not to mention Trump's political standing. Oil prices are — counterintuitively — relatively low at the moment, given the scale of the supply disruption. Global benchmark Brent crude futures hit $104 a barrel Monday, up 44% since the start of the war but still below the highs sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A gallon of gas cost $4.50 on average in the U.S. on Tuesday, up 44% compared to last May. Diesel is up 61%. Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway that tankers need to transit to reach the Persian Gulf, where they can fuel up in Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern energy giants. …