2026 Senate races to watch: From most likely to flip to Democratic long shots

The U.S. Capitol Building is visible in the early morning hours of April 2. Andrew Harnik/ hide caption toggle caption Andrew Harnik/ Stay up to date with our Politics newsletter, sent weekly . The national political environment is a difficult one for Republicans. President Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, his war in Iran is unpopular, and views of the economy continue to be negative. With the GOP's razor-thin majority in the House, all of that has made Democrats the odds-on favorites to pick up the lower chamber. But what about the Senate? That's still an uphill climb for Democrats, given that the path to a majority runs through some pretty Republican-leaning places, like Ohio and Alaska. Because Trump is in the White House, and a vice president breaks ties in the Senate, Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats to take control. Republicans contend they will hold the Senate, but narrowly. They expect Democrats to pick up anywhere from one to three seats. Democrats believe a path to four is possible. So let's take a look at the landscape, in order of most to least likely to flip. Tier 1 is most likely, Tier 2 is competitive but less likely, and so on. Race rating denotations (Toss-Up, Lean, etc.) are based on the Cook Political Report. Analysis is based on conversations with political operatives involved in the campaigns. Tier 1 — Most likely to flip: North Carolina NORTH CAROLINA (R-Open) LEAN D: It's currently the most likely seat to change hands . …